As predicted yesterday, a huge Saturday of college hoops brought a lot of movement in the brackets. Not to mention Seton Hall’s win over Xavier earlier today, and Pittsburgh’s win over Duke. This update is current as of the end of that Duke-Pittsburgh game.
One thing I notice both watching the games this year and looking at the seeds (and all the data I’m using to come up with the projections) is how evenly matched teams are. For the most part, any teams within 2 seed lines of each other are pretty even. For example, Baylor is on the 6 line, but are they really worse than Iowa State – whom they’ve beaten twice, and is on the 4 line? And are they really a whole lot better than Dayton, who is now an 8?
We’ll find out soon enough. For now, here’s today’s projection. As usual, moves up or down are in parentheses, and projected auto qualifiers are in bold.
In since 2/27 update: Virginia Commonwealth, South Dakota State, Weber State
Out since 2/27 update: George Washington, IPFW, Montana
1s: Kansas, Virginia (+1), Villanova, Xavier
2s: Michigan State, Oklahoma (-1), Utah (+1), Oregon
3s: Miami, North Carolina (-1), West Virginia (+1), Iowa
4s: Iowa State, Purdue (+1), Kentucky (-1), Texas A & M (+1)
5s: Texas (+1), Maryland (-1), Duke (-1), California
6s: Baylor, Indiana (+1), Arizona, Notre Dame (-1)
7s: Wisconsin, Seton Hall (+1), Saint Joe’s (+1), Texas Tech
8s: Wichita State, Dayton (-2), Colorado, Providence (+1)
9s: Pittsburgh (+1), Southern California, South Carolina (-2), Tulsa
10s: Vanderbilt (+1), Syracuse, Michigan, Connecticut (-1)
11s: Florida (-1), Temple (+1), Saint Bonaventure, Cincinnati, Virginia Commonwealth (new), Monmouth
12s: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State (-1), Valparaiso, Arkansas-Little Rock
13s: Princeton, Hofstra, Akron, Belmont
14s: South Dakota State (new), Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Hawaii
15s: Alabama-Birmingham, Stony Brook (-1), New Mexico State, Weber State (new)
16s: High Point, North Florida, Hampton, Texas Southern, Wagner, Lehigh
Last Four In: Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Cincinnati, Virginia Commonwealth
First Four Out: Alabama, Butler, Gonzaga (+1), Oregon State
Second Four Out: Stanford, Florida State (+1), George Washington, Washington
Third Four Out: Georgia Tech, Louisiana State (+1), Brigham Young (-1), Clemson
Fourth Four Out: Ohio State, Creighton, UCLA (-1), Houston (new)
Look for my next projection on Tuesday. And as always, check out the Bracket Matrix in the meantime.