Bracketology: The Field is Narrowing

With March almost here, the field is narrowing.  Once we get past the Next Four Out, teams are hanging on by a thread.  Take Indiana, for example.  With last night’s loss at Iowa, the Hoosiers fall to 15-13 overall, 5-10 in the Big Ten.  Since 2011, no team has gotten an at-large bid with more than 13 losses.  By that logic, the Hoosiers need to win out, including through the Big Ten tournament.

I still think that because of their early season wins against Kansas and North Carolina, the Hoosiers could sneak into the NCAA field by winning their three remaining regular season games – Northwestern, Purdue, and Ohio State, which would add two more quality wins – and getting to the finals of the Big Ten tourney.  But, that’s a tall order for a team that has lost 5 in a row and doesn’t ever seem interested in playing defense.

Of course, every team still has chances for good wins and bad losses, with the last few regular season games and the conference tournaments approaching.  The field could look much different by Selection Sunday.  With that said, let’s get to today’s projection.

As always, moves up or down since the previous update are in parentheses after the team’s name, and projected automatic qualifiers are in bold.

 In since Sunday’s update: Providence

Out since Sunday’s update: Syracuse

1s: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina

2s: Louisville, Baylor, Oregon, Duke

3s: Florida State, Florida, Arizona, UCLA (+1)

4s: Kentucky (-1), West Virginia, Purdue, Butler

5s: Creighton, Wisconsin (+1), Cincinnati, Virginia

6s: Notre Dame (-1), SMU, Saint Mary’s, Maryland

7s: Iowa State, Minnesota, South Carolina, Oklahoma State

8s: Xavier, Dayton, VCU, Miami (+1)

9s: Northwestern (-1), Virginia Tech, Wichita State (+1), Michigan

10s: Michigan State, Kansas State (-1), Marquette, Southern California

11s: Arkansas, Seton Hall, California, Providence (new), Middle Tennessee

12s: Illinois State, TCU, Texas-Arlington, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada

13s: Vermont, Monmouth, Princeton, Akron

14s: UNC-Asheville, Belmont, Oakland, Florida Gulf Coast

15s: Bucknell, Cal-Bakersfield, Furman, North Dakota State

16s: North Dakota, Texas Southern, Cal-Irvine, Mount Saint Mary’s, New Orleans, North Carolina Central

Last Four In: California, Providence, Illinois State, TCU

NIT Projection

 1s (First Four Out of NCAA Tournament field): Syracuse, Rhode Island, Tennessee (+1), Wake Forest

2s (Next Four Out): Georgia Tech, Texas Tech (-1), Alabama (+1), Georgetown

3s (Third Four Out): Houston, Vanderbilt, Indiana (-1), Illinois (+2)

4s: Boise State, Georgia, Clemson (-1), Utah

5s: Ohio State, Charleston, Pittsburgh, Valparaiso (+1)

6s: Ole Miss (-1), Arkansas State, Auburn (+1), Chattanooga (+1)

7s: New Mexico (-1), Memphis (-1), BYU, Colorado State (+1)

8s: Iowa (+1), Winthrop (-1), San Francisco, Richmond (+1)

Look for my next update before the weekend, and check out the Bracket Matrix in the meantime!

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About Mike B.

Avid sports fan, particularly of the Detroit Lions, Pistons, and Tigers, and University of Michigan.
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One Response to Bracketology: The Field is Narrowing

  1. Pingback: Bracketology: Is Gonzaga a Lock for a 1 Seed? | The Mind of Mike Broman

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