Just as quickly as they rose to the 1 line in my last update, North Carolina fell back to the 2 line after a shocking home loss to Wofford. That doesn’t even seem real. In the long run, how much will it hurt the Tar Heels? I don’t know, but it definitely doesn’t look good right now.
Another thing that stands out to me right now is this question: how will the Selection Committee view Kentucky come March? They’ll benefit from a much-improved SEC, assuming they can win their share of games. But right now, their best win is against Virginia Tech. They missed opportunities to add to the quality of their resume during the non-conference slate by losing to Kansas and UCLA. In this projection, I’ve dropped them all the way down to the 5 line.
With all that said, here’s today’s projection. As I mentioned in my first post of the season on December 15, I’ve seeded the top 12 lines only for now. Starting around mid-January, once each team has gotten a few conference games in, I’ll begin seeding the entire field.
In since last time: USC
Out since last time: Washington
1s – Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, Arizona State (+1)
2s – Kansas, West Virginia, Texas A & M (+1), North Carolina (-1)
3s – Wichita State, Xavier, Virginia (+1), Gonzaga (-1)
4s – Purdue, Tennessee, TCU, Arizona (+1)
5s – Kentucky (-2), Arkansas, Florida State (+1), Florida
6s – Cincinnati, Butler, Seton Hall (+1), Missouri (-1)
7s – Miami, Oklahoma (+2), Syracuse (-1), Michigan (+1)
8s – Utah (-1), St. John’s, Baylor, Notre Dame (+1)
9s – Clemson, Rhode Island, Alabama (-1), Ohio State (-2)
10s – Texas Tech, Minnesota, Maryland (+1), SMU (+1)
11s – Texas (+1), Louisville (+1), UCF (-1), Nevada (-1), Texas-Arlington (+1)
12s – USC (new), North Carolina State, Northern Iowa (-1), Middle Tennessee (-1), Towson
LAST FOUR IN – Louisville, UCF, USC, North Carolina State
FIRST FOUR OUT – St. Mary’s, Washington, Creighton, UCLA (+1)
NEXT FOUR OUT – San Diego State (+2), Auburn (+1), Oklahoma State, Iowa State
THIRD FOUR OUT – Temple (-2), St. Bonaventure (+4), LSU (-1), Marquette
So, that will do it for today. As always, if you want to rip me because I have your team too low or want to discuss anything else related to bracketology, feel free to do so in the comments. And as always, remember to check out the Bracket Matrix, a must for those of us who are obsessed with this stuff. Look for my next projection over the weekend.