Bracketology: Mid-Major Movement

Like my post from Wednesday, let’s examine a team’s resume to start off.  Where would you put this team right now?

Record: 15-8 (5-5 in conference, 1-5 in true road games)

Strength of schedule: 70th overall, 103rd non-conference

Ken Pom: 51st

RPI: 68

Good wins: at Wichita State, Arizona (neutral court), vs. USC, vs. Boise State

Bad losses: at Uconn, at Tulane, at Tulsa, Northern Iowa (neutral court)

Read on to find out who this team is and where I’d project them today.  This is another example of a resume that is all over the place.  A couple of really nice wins, along with a couple of really bad losses, and middling rankings.

One thing you might notice in this latest NCAA tournament projection is that I’m betting on the Selection Committee to give the mid-majors some respect, which is something they’ve been doing less and less of in recent years.  Gonzaga remains on the 5 line (few others have them this high), while Rhode Island, Saint Mary’s, and Nevada have all moved up a line.  I’ll probably go back and forth on this 1,000 times between now and Selection Sunday because lately, the Selection Committee shows a preference for middling major conference teams over strong mid-major conference teams.  But, we’ll see.

So, here’s today’s projection.  Moves up or down since last time are in parentheses after the team’s name.

In since last time: William & Mary, UC Santa Barbara, Stephen F. Austin

Out since last time: Northeastern, UC Davis, Nicholls State

1s – Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas

2s – Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Oklahoma

3s – Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee (+1)

4s – Arizona, North Carolina, West Virginia (-1), Cincinnati (+1)

5s – Kentucky, Ohio State (-1), Florida (+1), Gonzaga

6s – Seton Hall, Rhode Island (+1), Wichita State (-1), Saint Mary’s (+1)

7s – TCU (-1), Nevada (+1), Miami (+1), Arizona State (-1)

8s – Louisville (-1), Florida State (-1), Michigan, Butler (+1)

9s – Creighton (-1), Arkansas, Texas, Alabama

10s – Texas A & M, North Carolina State, USC (+1), Providence

11s – Kansas State, Western Kentucky, Syracuse (-1), Houston, Middle Tennessee (+1)

12s – Marquette (-1), Boise State (-1), New Mexico State, Buffalo, Loyola-Chicago

13s – Belmont, South Dakota State, East Tennessee State, Louisiana

14s – Vermont, William & Mary (new), Wright State, Bucknell

15s – Montana, UC Santa Barbara (new), Stephen F. Austin (new), Rider

16s – Florida Gulf Coast, Penn (-1), Wagner, Radford, North Carolina A & T, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

LAST FOUR IN – Syracuse, Houston, Marquette, Boise State

FIRST FOUR OUT – Washington, Missouri (+1), UCLA, Notre Dame

NEXT FOUR OUT – Virginia Tech, Georgia, SMU (-1), South Carolina

THIRD FOUR OUT – Temple (+2), Nebraska, Maryland, LSU

So, the mystery team from the beginning of the post is SMU.  As you see above, I have them in the Next Four Out.  While they’re actually on the 11 line right now according to the Bracket Matrix, I just don’t see them as strong enough to get in the field right now.

Anyway, that will do it for today.  As always, if you want to rip me because I have your team too low or want to discuss anything else related to bracketology, feel free to do so in the comments.  Look for my next update early next week.


About Mike B.

Avid sports fan, particularly of the Detroit Lions, Pistons, and Tigers, and University of Michigan.
This entry was posted in March Madness and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s