Bracketology: Watch the Bubble

Little has changed at the top since my last update on Monday, with most of the important action taking place on the bubble.  A lot of critical games took place last night.  On the losing side of the ledger were TCU, Butler, and Temple.  TCU and Temple keep a precarious grip on a spot in the field for now, and Butler is becoming a long shot to make it (though with the “softness” of the bubble, that notion could change by the end of the weekend).  On the even worse side of things was South Carolina.  Their home loss to Alabama puts them at 14-14, and they don’t have the resume to get in the tournament with 15 losses.  Nothing short of winning out will get them in the field at this point.

On the winning side of the ledger were Dayton, Ohio State, Alabama, VCU, and Utah State.  VCU is leading the A-10 at this point, but I think they would get in as an at-large if the field were selected today.  Utah State is making a strong push and I love seeing mid-majors get in, but I still think they need to add a win over a team that will make the field (or have teams just above them lose more), and they’ll have the chance to do that against Nevada this Saturday night.  Basically, by avoiding a bad loss against San Diego State last night, they stayed on the cusp of the field.

Lastly, Providence and Indiana kept their faint hopes alive with wins at Butler and at home against Wisconsin, respectively.  Indiana is a case worth looking at because at 14-14, you would think they have to win out.  But, the past two seasons, 15-loss teams have earned at-large bids, which had never happened before 2017.  And, the Hoosiers have some really high-end wins now, having beaten Marquette at home and Michigan State on the road in addition to last night’s win against Wisconsin.  So, they’re a long shot, but don’t count them out just yet.  With the unprecedented level of mediocrity on the bubble this year, we might even see a 16-loss team get an at-large.

With that said, here’s the latest update.  I didn’t move anyone in or out of the field since my last update, but there was a lot of movement around the cut line.

1s: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky

2s: North Carolina, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan

3s: Marquette, Houston, Purdue, Kansas

4s: Texas Tech, LSU, Florida State (+1), Wisconsin

5s: Maryland, Iowa State, Kansas State (-1), Mississippi State

6s: Virginia Tech, Nevada, Iowa, Louisville

7s: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Baylor, Villanova (+1)

8s: Ole Miss (-1), St. John’s, Washington, Texas

9s: Ohio State (+2), Syracuse, Auburn, Oklahoma

10s: Seton Hall, Arizona State (-1), Florida (+1), North Carolina State

11s: VCU, Minnesota (-1), Wofford, TCU (-1)

12s: Alabama, UCF, Clemson, Temple, Belmont, Lipscomb (+1)

13s: Old Dominion (-1), New Mexico State, Vermont, Hofstra

14s: Yale, South Dakota State, UC-Irvine, Texas State

15s: Radford, Montana, Drake, Wright State

16s: Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, Bucknell, Norfolk State, St. Francis-PA, Canisius

Last Four Byes: Florida, North Carolina State, Minnesota, TCU

 Last Four In: Alabama, UCF, Clemson, Temple

First Four Out: Utah State, UNC-Greensboro, Dayton (+1), Furman

Next Four Out: Butler (-1), St. Mary’s, Georgetown, Nebraska

Others in Consideration (in no particular order): Creighton, Davidson, Murray State, Oregon State, San Francisco, Toledo, Providence, Indiana

Enjoy the games, and look for my next update on Friday, March 1.  Check out the Bracket Matrix in the meantime!

 

 

About Mike B.

Avid sports fan, particularly of the Detroit Lions, Pistons, and Tigers, and University of Michigan.
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1 Response to Bracketology: Watch the Bubble

  1. Pingback: Bracketology: March Badness | The Mind of Mike Broman

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