If you’re a Michigan State fan, here’s something you don’t want to hear: your team is ranked second in the nation in the AP poll and the Coaches poll, but they are realistically no better than a 3 seed right now.
Yes, this is unusual. A team ranked higher than the seed line it deserves. But you know what else is unusual? Earning a top 2 seed while only having 2 wins over teams expected to make the tournament. Michigan State has two great wins at home against Purdue and against North Carolina on a neutral court. After that, its best win is against a Notre Dame team that is on the wrong side of the bubble. That type of resume won’t earn a top seed. The Spartans could get two quality win opportunities in the Big Ten tournament, but the same could be said for all of the teams above them in their respective conference tournaments.
Elsewhere, a lot of teams have moved into, out of, and through the bracket since I last updated on Friday. Here is the latest, with moves up or down in parentheses after the team’s name.
In since last time: Northeastern, Northern Kentucky, Bethune-Cookman, UNC-Greensboro, Nicholls State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, USC, Louisville
Out since last time: Charleston, Wright State, Savannah State, East Tennessee State, Stephen F. Austin, Grambling (I mistakenly had them in the field not realizing they are ineligible), Marquette, LSU
1s – Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2s – North Carolina (+1), Duke, Purdue, Auburn
3s – Michigan State (-1), Cincinnati, Wichita State (+), Tennessee (+1)
4s – West Virginia, Texas Tech (-1), Arizona (-1), Gonzaga
5s – Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio State, Rhode Island
6s – Nevada, Seton Hall, Michigan, TCU (+1)
7s – Houston (+1), Butler, Saint Mary’s, Florida State (-1)
8s – Oklahoma, Texas A & M (+1), Miami, Florida (+1)
9s – Creighton (+1), Arkansas, Arizona State (-2), Alabama (-1)
10s – North Carolina State, Virginia Tech (-1), Providence (+1), Missouri
11s – Kansas State (-1), Saint Bonaventure, Baylor, USC (new), Middle Tennessee (+1)
12s – Texas (-1), Louisville (new), Loyola-Chicago, Louisiana, New Mexico State
13s – South Dakota State, Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State
14s – UNC-Greensboro (new), Northeastern (new), Bucknell, Rider
15s – Montana, Northern Kentucky (new), UC Santa Barbara, Penn (+1)
16s – Florida Gulf Coast, UNC-Asheville (-1), Wagner, Nicholls State (new), Bethune-Cookman (new), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (new)
LAST FOUR IN – Baylor, USC, Texas, Louisville
FIRST FOUR OUT – Washington (+1), Marquette, Syracuse, UCLA
NEXT FOUR OUT – LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia (+1), Utah
THIRD FOUR OUT – Notre Dame, Western Kentucky (-1), Boise State, Oregon (+2)
As always, if you want to rip me because I have your team too low or want to discuss anything else related to bracketology, feel free to do so in the comments. Look for my next update on Wednesday, and check out the Bracket Matrix in the meantime.