Bracketology: Louisville Can’t Quite Lock it Up

Ah, Louisville.  On Wednesday night, I wrote about how the Cardinals could more or less secure an NCAA tournament bid by beating Virginia at home the following night.  Well, with a little over 4 minutes to go, Louisville led by 10… and ended up losing 67-66.  I still have the Cardinals among my Last Four In.

On the other side of that coin, will this finally be the year that Virginia reaches that elusive Final Four?  I’m worried about their ability to score.  At 67.5 points per game, they are 308^th in the nation.  Then again, they hold their opponents to a middle school Rec & Ed-like average of 52.6 PPG, which is best in the nation.  Needless to say, the Cavaliers will be a threat to go the distance in March Madness.

For now, here is my latest NCAA tournament projection, with moves up or down in parentheses after the team’s name.

In since last time: UC Davis, Marquette

Out since last time: UC Santa Barbara, Syracuse

1s – Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

2s – Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke (+1)

3s – Auburn (-1), Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State

4s – West Virginia, Clemson, Gonzaga, Texas Tech

5s – Arizona, Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan

6s – TCU, Nevada, Houston (+1), Rhode Island

7s – Seton Hall (-1), Miami, Saint Mary’s, Arkansas (+1)

8s – Florida, Texas A & M, Creighton (+1), Butler (-1)

9s – Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Florida State (-1), Missouri (+1)

10s – North Carolina State (-1), Oklahoma, USC, Providence

11s – Baylor, Saint Bonaventure, Kansas State, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette (new)

12s – Middle Tennessee, Loyola-Chicago, Louisiana, New Mexico State

13s – South Dakota State, Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State

14s – UNC-Greensboro, Northeastern, Bucknell, Rider

15s – Montana, Northern Kentucky, UC Davis (new), Penn

16s – Florida Gulf Coast, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls State, Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

LAST FOUR IN – Kansas State, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette

FIRST FOUR OUT – Texas, Washington, Syracuse, Notre Dame (+1)

NEXT FOUR OUT – UCLA (-1), Utah, Mississippi State (+1), Nebraska (+1)

As always, if you want to rip me because I have your team too low or want to discuss anything else related to bracketology, feel free to do so in the comments.  Look for my next update on Sunday, and check out the Bracket Matrix in the meantime.